Wow! Just when you think you are getting there, for just a few minutes, you break just a few rules – and boy do you pay for it! This was a terrible trade! My thesis was that DWAC would sell of further after a recent spike. I jumped in (mistake one) with too much size! I was rushing my entrance (mistake two) and overpaid for my PUT options. Again, if I had just waited a few minutes, I could have purchased them for much less. Then, the underlying stock shot up, and because I did not have a stop loss (mistake three), as it blew past opening price, I just watched my losses mount. This state continued for the next day, slowly watching my losses grow – all while justifying why there might be a turn around.
Here are the lessons and rules that will avoid this happening in the future.
- Always set an option stop loss, even if it’s wide. Perhaps set on this trade the opening level.
- Don’t oversize.
- Don’t rush entry.
- Don’t project your wishes on the market, rather listen to the market.
- Scale in on trades this big.
- Know your entry, exit and stop before entry.
Trade info:
Underlying: DWAC
Thesis: Sell off this week
Trade: DWAC 14 Jan 2022 52.00 PUT
You can see how the underlying moved against me here…
Day 2 Update:
So this trade went from bad to worse, as you can see the FED spoke, the market recovered, and DWAC got some major tail winds. These options will expire worthless, but I’m down so much I might as well hold and see if there is any turn around. Not holding my breath.
As I watch my PUT options values move toward zero, I’m reminded of other mistakes I made. Perhaps what I need to do below is write down what this trade should have looked like, and we also need to come up with hard and fast SOLUTIONS. Not just ideas of what not to do, but CONCRETE ACTIONS. So before I trade again, I’ll be creating a paper checklist of read before entering a trade, but also writing below what this trade should have looked like. For example, I should have had a BULL thesis as well as my BEAR thesis.
What this trade should have looked like
- More patience and a better entry.
- Don’t project a BEAR thesis, rather watch the charts and be ready for BULL thesis.
- Size down until you have consistency and are a CPT (consistently profitable trader)
- Size in, start small then size in when thesis looks correct.
- Spend more time reading the wider time frames – perhaps the BULL thesis was obvious.
- Be ready to adapt; when the trade turned against me, I should have traded thesis.
- ALWAYS SET A STOP. This is the biggest mistake. I thought I could have a mental stop, but the draw down was too slow to see (plus i’m busy at my day job), so I should always have an auto stop. DO NOT TRADE OPTIONS AGAIN WITHOUT A TOP, even if it is wide. Minimum should be 50% of my entry lot.
- Make sure you know if the stock is a @wallstreetbets reddit stock – these can be unpredictable. DWAC was certain one!
- Make sure you look at the spread between bid and ask, and wait for it to be reasonable! Don’t buy options without looking at the spread. I noticed the spread was much closer, AFTER I rushed into purchasing my PUTS..
Quick side note….there was no news or reason for the rise! Again, most likely pointing to Reddit crowd or feverish tRump fans. Notice the note below “There was no obvious reason for the move”.
There is a famous saying “the market can stay irrational, longer than you scan stay solvent”. This is certainly true with this stock. Don’t bet against fanatic tRump supporters or Reddit users! More articles coming out today saying this rise is not justified. Perhaps it will crash again soon, but I’m just way too early again! I need to watch PRICE ACTION, not news!!! That is the lesson!